Can Net Zero survive the Iran War?
By Kieran Everson
The Iran War has wrecked chaos on the global energy markets since the Strait of Hormuz was first blocked on 28 February.
Prices at the pump have seen sharp increases since the blockade began. Figures from the RAC show the average price of unleaded petrol rose to 158.52p per litre on 19 May, its highest level since the start of the war. Brent crude - generally used as a benchmark for wholesale oil prices - is currently trading at around $111 a barrel. Before the conflict, Brent was trading at about $73 a barrel.
This comes as widespread reports indicate the Government is preparing for a summer of shortages if the war continues. According to the Mail, senior civil servants have encouraged the Prime Minister to level with the public about the possibility of rationing, as they believe we cannot maintain normal levels of fuel consumption for the Summer.
This huge instability in energy markets has come after years of sustained political attacks on Britain’s climate commitments, which puts Labour in a tough position. Stick or twist?
A brief history of Net Zero
June 2019
Inception of Net Zero
PM Theresa May announces that a Net Zero target of 2050 will be enshrined into law, making Britain the first major country in the world to do so
November 2020
Setting up Net Zero
Boris Johnson's government publish 'Ten Point Plan for a Green Industrial Revolution' - a £12bn strategy to drive the energy transition
Oct/Nov 2021
Intensifaction of Net Zero
Johnson government publish 'Net Zero Strategy,' they commit to a ban on new petrol and diesel cars in 2030, and the COP26 climate summit is hosted in Glasgow - where Tory Minister Alok Sharma is pictured holding back tears
Sept/Oct 2022
Cooling on Net Zero
New PM Liz Truss slows down Conservative commitment to Net Zero by temporarily lifting the moratorium on fracking and supporting new oil/gas sites in the North Sea
2022-24
Partial Rollback of Net Zero
New PM Rishi Sunak oversees a further rollback on Net Zero by extending oil/gas licensing while delaying the petrol and diesel car ban until 2035
Present day
Resurrection of Net Zero
Under Labour PM Starmer, the government aims for Britain to be a global climate leader once again, while ending new oil/gas licensing, creating a publicly owned energy company focused on the green transition, and accelerating the rollout of wind and solar
A brief history of Net Zero
Reform UK, who have risen to be Britain’s dominant right-wing party in the polls, have pledged to scrap Net Zero if they enter Number 10. Nigel Farage wrote in The Sun: “This could be the next Brexit – where parliament is so hopelessly out of touch with the country.” Scrapping these climate targets have become a key pillar of Reform’s messaging around the economy. On their website, their policy reads: Scrap Net Zero to Cut Energy Bills.
One of the most eye-catching criticisms of Miliband’s policy came from the Parliamentary Labour Party itself. In March, backbencher Henry Tufnel MP broke ranks, demanding the government began drilling in the North Sea and scrapped carbon taxes, in a piece written for the Sun. Tufnel is a brand-new Labour MP from the Class of ‘24. He is not alone in the party for his views, joined by Graham Stringer MP (class of ‘97), but his newbie status tells its own story.
“The assault on Net Zero is relentless,” says Shaun Spiers, former executive director of the Green Alliance think tank. “This has an effect on voters and Labour MPs will listen”.
Before the charity role, Spiers was a Labour MEP from 1994-99. He explained his continued support for the green policies but acknowledged the battle it faces in politics today.
"My reaction to the Strait Hormuz blockade? Thank god we have homegrown clean energy, and isn't it a shame we didn't do more sooner"
Spiers said: “Miliband’s argument, which I find compelling, is the fact we make up one percent of emissions makes net zero even more important. It makes climate diplomacy even more important. We have to show people you can continue to have economic growth while cutting emissions. This can only be politically feasible if you improve people’s lives”.
“I am disappointed in the Tories. Mrs Thatcher was the first world leader to raise the alarm about climate change,” Spiers explained. He pointed out that despite Kemi Badenoch’s initial refusal to outline specific policies after winning her party’s leadership, she was quick to come out against Net Zero.
He went on to describe the Shadow Energy Secretary, Claire Coutinho, as a formerly “mainstream Green Tory” equipped with the zeal of the convert, pointing out that her maiden speech to the House of Commons paid tribute to environmentalist Peter Ainsworth. Spiers knew Ainsworth well and described him as a “brilliant man”.
“There is a huge amount of aping Reform in this,” said Spiers. “Green Alliance worked closely with Green Tories. They’re asking what has happened”.
Spiers struggled to hold back a laugh when I asked if this split would cause an issue if the Tories won a majority.
“The general assumption they are not going to win”
Eager to learn more about this anti-Net Zero ecosystem described by Spiers, I sat down with Chris Bayliss, contributing editor at The Critic. Bayliss used to work in the energy sector himself, based in Baghdad, and has become a well-recognised voice critiquing the policies of Ed Miliband across the media.
“We are seeing a real change,” said Bayliss. “We are seeing people finally start to question this. For years, people have been arguing renewables are cheaper, so why have our energy prices gone up?”
“It is heartening to see”.
Watch a clip from my interview with Chris Bayliss:
With a Labour leadership election looming over the country, and the Iran War showing little signs of resolution, it would seem Net Zero will continue to be put under pressure by a global squeeze on prices. It remains to be seen whether Ed Miliband’s strict adherence to his green principles can survive this parliament.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has been contacted for comment.
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