Decision 2024: the race in London
Americans living abroad could swing it in 2024
Nail biter
US citizens living abroad could prove the deciding factor in this year’s presidential election.
With fears the race will again come down to a few thousand votes in several states, there’s every reason to think relatively small voting totals in either direction will ultimately tip the balance. In fact, Americans living overseas last time (2020) were the feather on the scale that brought in Georgia and Arizona for the Democrats. The states’ combined 27 electoral college votes amounted to 10% of Biden’s required 270 to win.
According to the US Election Assistance Commission’s Election Administration and Voting Survey, 890,000 votes were counted from overseas citizens at the 2020 election, from 1.2 million ballots returned. As such, American voters living oversees worldwide could, with their propensity to vote Democrat, play a decisive role at the margins.
Indeed, this may have influenced former speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi’s late August decision to broadcast a message to these very voters on X, urging them to register as soon as possible.
“American voters abroad were instrumental in winning key races up and down the ballot,” she said posing in front of the San Francisco skyline. “Democrats Abroad is doing a great job mobilising the overseas vote and helping ensure the Americans living aboard have the tools and information they need to vote.
“This election is too important for anyone to sit on the sidelines.”
Vice chair of Democrats Abroad UK John Scardino told South West Londoner the 2000 election played a decisive role in him getting involved with Democratic politics.
The famously contested election in the end saw George W. Bush inch past the finishing line following a split 5-4 US Supreme Court decision, which froze recount efforts in Florida amid claims it would have handed the election to Al Gore. Other nail biters he names include Al Fraken’s 2008 Senate election (a comedian-turned-politician described by Scardino as America’s Zelenskyy), where around 300 votes tipped the balance. His victory gave Barack Obama his initial filibuster-proof majority, paving the way for the Democrat’s post-recession legislative agenda.
“That's largely what we're all about because elections can come down to these very narrow margins and the results can have an enormous impact,” he says.
Democrats Abroad has been in existence for over 60 years, and in that time has grown to be an official brand of the party, boasting an office at national headquarters and recognised every cycle at the Democratic National Conference.
The Republican Party’s version of the organisation, Republicans Oversees, is a different body in substance, as well as form. Unlike the Democrats, the party lacks any official ties to its mother party in the US and is not a mass membership organisation.
“It's really just a social organisation of like-minded Americans,” says chair of Republicans Overseas Greg Swenson. “Grassroots, civic minded, so we have a lot of social gatherings. But no real formal role.”
Swenson is a well-known face on the media circuit, where he can regularly be seen representing the Republican viewpoint on British television, often seen chatting amiably with Nigel Farage on his GB News talk show. While Democrats Abroad devotes much of its energies to various types of campaign drives, Republicans Overseas main focus is fundraising.
However, Swenson argued the organisation is starting to move beyond its more ad-hoc roots. A swanky Belgravia fundraiser in June, featuring special guest Donald Trump Jr, ended up raising $2m for the national campaign.
“That kind of put us on the map a little bit,” says Swenson. “I attended the event as well, and got to know the campaign a lot better, especially the Finance Committee. And we are working basically every day with the campaign on the Get out the vote and trying to register as many people as we can to spread the word.”
The organisation got a boost last month when Donald Trump came out in support of its pet issue, ending the US practice of taxing its citizens who live abroad.
“Republicans Overseas has been fighting for the rights of Americans abroad since its inception ten years ago,” said Solomon Yue, Vice Chairman and CEO of Republicans Overseas.
“We have spoken to many politicians over the years, and while they sympathised with the burden of double taxation, very few have been willing to act. President Trump fights for the economic freedom of America’s working men and women, whether they live stateside or abroad.”
Like its conservative equivalent, Democrats Abroad UK is also a social club. Led by a core group active throughout the four-year cycle, the party organises everything from book clubs to speakers’ events and film screenings, where they provide those who attend material on making sure their registrations are up to date.
“But when we get into an election year, we start to see a pickup of people wanting to get involved, particularly students, but people in every age group really,” says Scardino.
The 20-year UK resident said there was a clear surge of support from volunteers and donors following Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the ticket following his disastrous 27 June debate.
Campaign HQ
Ground game
What does this look like on the ground?
Democrats Abroad UK’s temporary campaign headquarters is a little slice of America carved into a backroom at the London School of Economics. Walking inside, volunteers can be seen busying themselves with tasks of varying effectiveness - from pasting together little post cards described by one campaign leader as a nice way for people to keep occupied – to the serious phone bankers sequestered in a dark room to the side.
Bottles of water, campaign posters and miniature American flags are plentiful. Between bursts of activity, the 15 or so people in the room spend their time chatting about the election or their lives in Britain. It seems strange to think the election could be decided here.
Elizabeth Kelly, a 26-year long veteran of Democrats Abroad UK, co-chairs the Get out the vote team. She argues there is an unmet need of Americans throughout the world who want to vote, but don’t necessarily know how, or even if they are allowed. Even voters who do face many hurdles along the way.
The US Federal Voting Assistance Program has estimated just 7.8% of Americans overseas cast a vote in the 2020 election, with even more dire results for the mid-terms. Kelly aims to change that.
“Just in the 2018 election it was amazing how many people we were able to help,” she says. “Particularly a lot of young people. Particularly a lot of study abroad students.”
A big part of this is phone banking. Kelly and her team spend the months up to election day calling registered Democratic Party members all over the world to ensure they have what they need to return their ballots. The number one reason ballots don’t get counted is they aren’t sent back in time, so speed is emphasised by the team.
“There are 44 chapters of Democrats Abroad all around the world," says Kelly. "We're calling them, and basically just reminding them to apply for their ballots. The big message is the ballots are out, so send them back right away!”
Watch the video to see two Democrats Abroad campaign volunteers explain the work they are doing.
Volunteers are trained through step-by-step guides to get them up to speed, with campaign leaders checking in weekly to keep them motivated. Kelly also keeps a WhatsApp chat where people can share stories of what tactics have worked well or failed to convince.
One phone banker named Robert says responses so far have generally been enthusiastic, with many people saying they appreciated the party calling to check up on them.
“What starts here at the campaign office is the entry level voter assistance,” says Kelly. “But as people decide they want to nerd out on voting - because it's 50 different states, it's all very different - there are extra levels of training.”
These most experienced campaign volunteers are trained through the Federal Voter Assistance Project to learn the ins-and-outs of ballot submitting, before heading out to conduct voter registration drives.
“What we want everyone to be who comes here is a voting champion, because the most influential way to get someone to vote is if a friend asks them to do it,” says Kelly. “So, we are empowering the people who come here to see themselves as advocates for voting.”
In the final days of the campaign the pressure is heating up.
“Last week, I was on Sky News from midnight to five, and then made the media rounds after that,” says Swenson. “So, it was 30 straight hours, 15 different shows.”
But the colossal energies being poured into the campaign from both sides is a testament to gravity of what is shaping up to be one of the most divisive elections in US history.
Many have described the election in existential terms, with every Democrats Abroad volunteer appearing genuinely fearful for the future under a Trump presidency.
Unlike 2016 and 2020 when Democrats could at least go to sleep on election night confident of comfortable leads in the polls (later proved wrong) , this time it’s a dead heat. Defeat is likely – and few have delusions otherwise.
Still, being able to watch the election from within the M25 has its perks for some.
Kelly Craige, an American in her 20s living in London, said the benefit of distance has helped her stay focused on the issues that matter.
“The states are just so intense. It's just so, so intense, and it's been intense since Trump's first election or even before that, but specifically since then, the trauma of it all. I think it's a privilege to be a bit removed.”
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