How the Israel-Palestine war is influencing the Labour vote in the General Election
Since October 7th, individuals around the world have woken up to footage of immense fear and bombing in the Gaza Strip. Naturally, British people, amongst others worldwide, have called on their government to pressure Israel to a ceasefire in an attempt to stop the horror of war.
Organisations in the United Kingdom such as the Palestinian Solidarity Campaign (PSC) organised massive protests in London to call for a ceasefire and pressure political leaders to stop supplying arms to Israel. Pro-Palestinian protests have erupted not only nationwide, but also worldwide and even in university campuses.
On May 30th, Parliament was dissolved and a General Election was called on July 4th. Political leaders are under increasing pressure to explain their stance on the Israel-Palestine war, and what they say could have an immense impact on the make-up of the next government.
The Israel and Palestine war
On October 7th, 2023, Palestinian armed groups in Gaza launched a massive rocket barrage at Israel, breaching the perimeter fence at at least ten points. They infiltrated Israeli towns, resulting in more than 1,400 deaths and the capture of around 200 Israeli soldiers and civilians. The Israeli military responded by declaring a "state of war alert", deploying troops into Gaza and targeting numerous sites, including residential areas and healthcare facilities.
This led to 83 per cent of the Gazan population being internally displaced in less than three months as reported by the internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (iDMC) in May alongside a famine and unsanitary conditions. According to the Committee To Protect Journalists (CPJ), the war has taken an “unprecedented toll on Gazan journalists” with at least 108 journalists and 200 humanitarian workers dead among the 38,000 killed.
UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak quickly responded on X to condemn Hamas and defend Israel's right to defend itself.
On 6 April, six months later, the PM released a statement saying: “after six months of war in Gaza, the toll on civilians continues to grow – hunger, desperation, loss of life on an awful scale.
“We continue to stand by Israel’s right to defeat the threat from Hamas terrorists and defend their security.”
YouGov statistics show that seven in ten Britons are in favour of a ceasefire and call for Israel to stop military action in the Gaza Strip.
When individuals were asked in May whether Israel should continue to take military action, only 13% of Britons agreed while 69% called for a stop of military action and a ceasefire.
Military ground operation of Rafah, where 1.4 million people are believed to be sheltered, took place in May when British opposition to Israeli military action was the highest.
Londoners have previously sent local MPs emails to call for them to vote for a ceasefire. Previous ceasefire votes in the parliament have failed despite the majority of the public calling for it. On 21 February 2024, only 20 MPs voted for a ceasefire while 212 said no.
Protest
Thousands of people of all backgrounds took to the streets nationwide to protest the government’s opposition towards the conflict and call for a ceasefire and the stop of arms supply to Israel. London protests, that usually took place on Saturday, drew in thousands around the UK. Some protests were in front of parliament during ceasefire voting in the parliament.
Captured by Farida Elsebai
Captured by Farida Elsebai
Student encampments
Student encampments first started at Columbia University in America, but since a total of 36 student encampments in the UK have been set up. The earliest student encampment was at the University of Warwick in April and the latest one at Imperial College London in May.
Students have set up tents on their university campuses to protest the complicity of their universities to divest from Israel or companies complicit in the genocide of the Palestinians.
Some students have chosen to take legal action against their university such as LSE students, while some universities such as the University of York chose to divest. The encampments have been a source of pressure on universities, police, and the government to reassess its support of Israel and call for a ceasefire.
The General Election
Preliminary projections for the General Election indicate that Labour is currently leading. The latest Electoral Calculus poll puts Labour on course to win a 264-seat majority with a total of 457 seats.
The party faces internal divisions regarding the UK's stance on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. This has led to significant public pressure on Kier Starmer, the party's leader, to reconsider his position, especially after his earlier declaration of support in October 2023 for 'Israel's right to self-defence'.
On May 27th in an interview with Channel 4, Starmer was asked whether he agrees with the International Criminal Court's prosecutor seeking an arrest warrant for Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders. Starmer replied to say:
" I respect their independence. I don't think there's any equivalence between Hamas and Israel. Hamas is a terrorist organization. Israel has the right to self-defence, but I believe in international law."
On the 3rd of June, the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) dropped a banner from Westminster Bridge to call on Starmer to say he’ll end arms sales to Israel if he becomes Prime Minister. This came after more than 100 artists signed a letter on July 4th to urge Keir Starmer to ‘take a stand’ for human rights and international law and to commit to ending arms sales to Israel.
The Muslim vote had previously endorsed Labour MPs that support Palestine on June 5th. On June 8th, they released a statement to say that they will not be endorsing any Labour MPs due to the party leadership position on the Israel-Palestine. They will also not be encouraging any Labour candidates.
On June 11th, PSC launched a Vote Palestine 2024 campaign where activities and supporters for each candidate in their constituency 6 questions about their position on support a ceasefire and other matters such as ICC and ICJ rulings.
Ben Jamal, PSC Director, said:
“Hundreds of thousands of people in the UK actively support the cause of justice for Palestine. We urge them to judge how political parties and candidates respond to our specific demands when deciding how to cast their vote."
The Impact on the General Election
The General Election is due to take place on the 4th of July. There are huge issues and challenges individuals are facing, such as the cost of living and wellbeing, that have led to the shift of voting from the Conservative party despite being elected a majority in 2019. The war in Israel and Palestine has been a playing factor in the shift of votes and people's stances on Labour and Conservative.
Ex-Labour members standing independently
In 2022, Faiza Shaheen was selected to run for Labour for Chingford and Woodford Green. It was announced in late May due to the nature of historical social media posts on X concerning Israel-Palestine she had liked that she was deselected. Following, 50 Labour members resigned, some accusing the Labour Party of institutional racism. On June 4th, Shaheen announced that she will be running as an independent candidate.
Diana Abbott is one of the Labour MPs advocating for a ceasefire despite Keir Starmer's initial stance on Palestine. Since 1987, Abbott represented Hackney North and Stoke Newington but the MP's criticism of a Guardian article and its understanding of racism led to her suspension. Keir Starmer said that the Labour party has zero tolerance for antisemitism. On May 28, Abbott was readmitted to the Labour Party and later on June 2nd, Abbott decided to run for Labour.
Jeremy Corbyn was banned from standing for Labour in May as he claimed that the scale of antisemitism in the Labour party was “dramatically overstated”. He was later expelled from the Labour Party and decided to run as an independent for Islington North. Corbyn has been vocal about his support for Palestine on social media and has joined multiple protests.
On June 13th, Labour published their manifesto that outlines their plans if they win the 2024 General Election. They have pledged to push for an immediate ceasefire, the release of all hostages, the upholding of international law and the rapid increase of aid into Gaza. On June 16th, the Guardian reported that Labour is pushing activists to campaign in constituencies with large Muslim populations as it fears it will lose 13 seats due to the party's stance on the Israel-Palestine war.
Labour is still predicted to win with a comfortable majority, but their initial stance on Palestine and incidents with some candidates could lead them to lose some seats to independent candidates in some constituencies. Pressure from activities and protests might not have shifted Labour's predicted majority seat allocation by much, but it has pressured it to change its stance on Israel-Palestine in fear of losing seats.
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