The seal of success: Do films still need an Oscar?

Since 1929, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has annually bestowed Oscars on the films it deems worthiest – but do they still matter in 2021?

After almost 100 years, we live in a society where opinions spread faster than ever on the internet.

From fans to critics to awards bodies, many are ready to share their thoughts on the latest releases from an industry that topped $100 billion in 2019 alone.

But how much does the Academy and the awards it bestows – in particular, the Oscar for best picture – actually matter when it comes to a film’s wider reception? Does it affect box office performance, legacy or sentiment?

Titanic’s journey from critical drubbing to record-equalling 11 Oscar haul (including best picture) in 1998 is a strong example of when critics were out of step with the public. But this is far from a thing of the past, with Green Book’s shock win in 2019. So does clinching that coveted statuette enhance a film in the eyes of audiences compared to the films who remained as also-ran nominees? And how did the tumult of the past year affect 2021’s best picture Oscar race, which Nomadland won?

CRITICS VS FANS

1942

1942’s Academy Awards featured Clapham-born Hollywood star Claude Rains in Here Comes Mr Jordan, one of 10 films nominated for best picture. But this ceremony is most notorious for overlooking Citizen Kane, widely regarded as one of the best films ever made, in favour of How Green Was My Valley.

Film critic Arnold Wayne Jones, author of Envelope Please: The Ultimate Academy Awards Trivia Book, describes the Oscar list as a “snapshot of where the industry is”, arguing that we can often give it more credit than it deserves.

Speaking of the snub, he pointed out: “When's the last time anyone talked about How Green Was My Valley... or made an entire film about the writing of it?”

Will Brooker, professor of film and cultural studies at Kingston University London agrees.

“1942 is good evidence that Oscars don't affect long-term legacy and status, because of Citizen Kane. I didn't remember Ford's [director of How Green Was My Valley] win from that year.”

Other movies in this category would also attain classic status, such as The Maltese Falcon and Alfred Hitchcock’s Suspicion, perhaps reflected by the number of high – and perfect – Tomatometer scores from critics.

1982

This year saw an underdog British film Chariots of Fire scoop the top prize. Although there were just five best picture nominees in 1982, it’s interesting to see it lags behind the rest of the contenders when it comes to both critic and fan ratings. This was also the year of an iconic movie character’s first outing, with Indiana Jones debuting in competitor Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Jones labelled 1982 an “excellent year” for the Oscars, though conceded “surely Chariots was a surprise choice”.

1999

For 1999, a lighter film suited the mood of Academy members more: Shakespeare in Love won best picture, leaving Saving Private Ryan out in the cold. Despite Steven Spielberg and Tom Hanks’ involvement, and its affecting tale of war's personal costs, it wasn’t enough to stall Shakespeare in Love’s merry romp around Elizabethan London.

Saving Private Ryan did, however, nudge past the winner on the Tomatometer and comfortably outstrip it on IMDb User Rating.

2011

This year was a stand-out for its competitive list of 10 nominees. The King’s Speech seems a sentimental win over more traditional Oscars fodder like The Fighter, The Social Network and Winter’s Bone.

Brooker suggests Black Swan or Winter’s Bone as the only likely contenders, but remembered Natalie Portman’s win for best actress.

He explained: “What we think of as the 'winners' are not just best picture but the movies associated with best director, actor and actress.” 

There’s no real consensus in critic and fan feedback for 2011, other than Inception’s almost evenly matched rating, and high scores all around.

2019

2019 was the year Green Book took the major win, despite smart money having been on almost any other film.

Brooker commented: “I think this is still widely remembered as a bit of a travesty.”

Factoring in the comparison with Citizen Kane's best picture loss, he suggested: “Perhaps it matters more in terms of getting an audience in the year of the award, rather than ensuring a long-term legacy.

“I don't think Green Book is going to be remembered as a great movie, for instance, whereas missing the Oscar isn't going to hurt Citizen Kane.”

Although critics scoffed, users actually rated Green Book highest among the nominees from that night on IMDb, whereas Marvel juggernaut Black Panther’s IMDb rating was the second lowest of nominees that year.

2021

Hammersmith and Fulham-born Emerald Fennell’s Promising Young Woman was up for best picture, best original screenplay (a win) and best director. These Oscars saw no major upset when awarding Nomadland, but the previous 12 months represented seismic shifts in the industry due to the pandemic. With the majority of cinemas closed, box office was pitiful and many film fans struggled with access.

In terms of correlation, however, Mank was the least popular nominee with fans and critics alike. Nomadland, despite its prior awards, was also far from favourite in either category – that honour went to The Father, shared jointly with Minari for critics on the Tomatometer.

In the research poll below, Minari and The Father performed well, although Promising Young Woman emerged as the favourite in this case.

BOX OFFICE ANALYSIS

THE BOX OFFICE, WINNER VS NOMINEE

In 1982, Raiders overshadowed Chariots of Fire at the box office, taking more than six times its total.

In 1999, Saving Private Ryan earned $200 million more at the box office worldwide than Shakespeare in Love, as well as higher ratings with fans and critics.

The winner didn’t take the box office crown again in 2011 – that was Toy Story 3, which earned more than double that of The King’s Speech, surpassing the $1 billion mark too.

A rare blockbuster nomination for best picture in 2019, Black Panther, the twelfth highest-grossing film of all-time, outstripped its competitors with $1.35 billion at the box office.

A consequence of cinema closures over the past year is that four of the nine best picture nominees have now been made available on streaming platforms, at no additional cost – but what are the long-term effects of this on the industry? And how was this year’s Oscars shaped by industry shutdowns and delays?

Brooker talks of “a seismic and permanent change in our film viewing habits” because even dedicated cinemagoers have fallen out of the habit.

He suggested: “I can imagine cinemas closing and seeing films in a theatre becoming more hobbyist, like owning LPs on vinyl.”

Shawn Robbins, chief analyst at Boxoffice Pro, felt the world’s circumstances affected the general mood, as well as the number of Oscar-worthy films this year, if not the quality.

He said: “Interest was muted from the outset. I don't think the quality of the nominees was lesser than those of past years, but it's safe to say the broader field of candidates was much smaller than in a typical year.”

Oscarmetrics author Ben Zauzmer cited some anticipated films being pushed to 2021, but otherwise felt the shortlist was unaffected.

He said: “For the most part, I think the list was largely the same as it would have been had this been a more normal year.”

Critic Jones, however, is more sceptical over the past year and the Oscars, describing it as feeling like a “throwaway year”.

He said: “There simply wasn't the energy about movies this year, which in some ways allowed films that might not have been frontrunners to gain some traction.”

DO THE ACADEMY AWARDS OR CRITICS’ OPINIONS REALLY MATTER?

Jones made the point that after nearly a century, the Academy has “a lot of baggage to carry around”, including its poor decisions.

But when it comes to the weight of the Academy’s opinion, it’s difficult to find a consensus.

Zauzmer explained: “The Academy's choices of films to honour have grown further and further from the movies that audiences are seeking out.” 

Robbins, as an analyst, recognises the potential power of the Academy – but also its limits.

He said: “We've regularly seen box office runs hit a new gear after nominations are announced. Still, it's usually on a case-by-case basis. Not all award contenders cross over into the mainstream, but not all popular movies are dented without the approval of critics and awards branches either.

“I think most realize that an award is just a recognition of excellence and not necessarily a statement that any one movie is objectively better than all others.”

Critics, too, can be valuable for film-seeking audiences, especially when it comes to sites like Rotten Tomatoes – but Zauzmer recognised a clear “disconnect” between films garnering the most critical praise and those that do best at the box office.

Jones referenced the noise on social media as possibly giving added responsibility to the Academy, as stand-ins for critics, because it can be “difficult to filter out the detritus from the legitimate critical voices”.

“As a critic, I like to think critical acclaim still means something…”

But what about the Academy?

“Do the Oscars still matter? I think they do, yes.”